OK, it's prediction time.
A few things need to happen for Siena to beat Vanderbilt tonight. Center Josh Duell needs to do two of them. One, stay out of foul trouble, and two, figure out a way to keep A.J. Ogilvy from getting the ball deep.
As head coach Fran McCaffery said, if Ogilvy catches it near the basket, it's over. He can simply shoot over Duell, or Cory Magee and Ryan Rossiter when they're in to give Duell a breather.
The Saints needs to keep playing defense the way they did in the MAAC tournament. Early in the season, the Saints looked like the Phoenix Suns of college ball, scoring like crazy, but giving up easy baskets at the other end.
They buckled down late in the season and wouldn't be in Tampa today if they hadn't pressed Loyola and Rider off the floor.
It doesn't seem like there's much you can do with Shan Foster, whose shooting percentages are ridiculous, but Edwin Ubiles is going to give it a try, and Siena will have options on defense, with Kenny Hasbrouck giving Foster a quick opponent, and Ubiles a tall one.
On offense, Siena has to avoid one of those mysterious Twilight Zone games where everyone picks the same night to be bricklayers, like they did at home against Fairfield.
Does Vanderbilt's size wear down Siena, or does the Saints' quickness wear down the Commodores?
At the risk of sounding like an absolute homer, I'm picking Siena with a score that will get into the 70's for both teams. Let's say 75-70.
As strong as Vanderbilt's credentials are, they look like a team that the rebound-deficient Saints can hang with on the boards.
Duell has fouled out just twice in 29 games this season, and although he averages 22.8 minutes a game, he's been playing a lot more late in the season and is used to playing against taller, more athletic centers like Jason Thompson and Robin Lopez. He's smart enough to know how to guard
guys like Ogilvy, it's just a matter of whether Ogilvy is simply too good.
I don't think the Saints will have another bad shooting epidemic.
The two key guys for Siena will be point guard Ronald Moore and a guy who seems to have been lost in the shuffle a little bit through all the incessant media hype, Alex Franklin, which is hard to believe considering the season he's had.
The mobile Franklin is a monster on the glass and is strong enough to finish plays while getting hacked, which happened over and over and over this season. It seems like he's been converting the free throw on those plays more late in the season, as his back has continued to stay strong.
Siena hasn't seen a spectacle like this, but they should handle the pressure of the moment.