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Tight race in new Capital Region Senate District

By Lombardo David
Friday, November 2, 2012

The anointed Republican candidate in the newly created Capital Region Senate District has a narrow margin over his Democratic challenger.

According to a Siena Research Institute poll release this morning, Assemblyman George Amedore, R-Rotterdam, has a 3 percentage point lead over Delanson Democrat Cecilia Tkaczyk in the battle for the 46th Senate District. The 46th Senate District includes Montgomery, Schenectady, Albany, Greene and Ulster counties.

This race is far from over, though, with 9 percent of voters still not sure about who they will vote for on Election Day.

“The race, in this newly created senate district that was seen by many pundits as a seat drawn for Assemblyman Amedore, is too close to call," said Siena pollster Steve Greenberg in a statement. "Tkaczyk has been through one election in this district, having won the September Democratic primary, and now she finds herself in the closing days of a tight general election campaign."

Amedore's narrow lead, of 47 percent to 44 percent, appears to be on the backs of independent voters. He has 48 percent support amongst independent voters and Tkaczyk only gets 42 percent of them. Among members of their own party, Amedore is also doing slightly better, as 80 percent of Republicans back him and 75 percent of Democrats back Tkaczyk.

There is a slim Democratic enrollment advantage in this district, which reflects the narrow lead President Barack Obama has over former-Gov. Mitt Romney in the district.

Greenberg added that extensive money has been spent by both candidates in the 46th Senate District and by outside groups on their behalf.

"Now it all comes down to which candidate can better attract the few undecided voters and which campaign does a better job of getting their voters to the polls on Tuesday. As we move from the air war to the ground game, this race appears to be wide open," Greenberg said.

Tkaczyk's strength is in the southern portion of the district, where she has a 7 point lead. Amedore is cruising in the Capital Region, which he currently represents, with a 13-point lead.

Greenberg noted that Tkaczyk is the only candidate to actually run already in this district and win, as she emerged victorious in September from a three-way Democratic primary.

"Now it all comes down to which candidate can better attract the few undecided voters and which campaign does a better job of getting their voters to the polls on Tuesday. As we move from the air war to the ground game, this race appears to be wide open," he concluded.

In response to the poll, Senate Republican spokesman Scott Reif highlighted in a statement that Amedore has overcome outside advocacy groups spending money on behalf of Tkaczyk and the Democratic enrollment advantage in the district.

"He is the clear choice of the men and women of this district who want lower taxes, more jobs and a better quality-of-life, and is going to be elected to the Senate," said Reif.

Senate Democratic spokesman Mike Murphy put out a generic statement regarding all three Senate races covered in polls today by the Siena Research Institute. In his statement, Murphy said the polls indicated the Democratic message is resonating with voters.

Follow @GazettePolitics on Twitter.

SD46 November 2012 Crosstabs

 

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