That said, I feel compelled to offer my top three choices for the Kentucky Derby. For what it's worth, here goes:

1. Colonel John
2. Monba
3. Pyro

To me, Colonel John has been the most physically impressive horse on the grounds. He is massive and muscular, and has reminded more than just myself of Street Sense last year in his appearance and demeanor. He hasn't run on conventional dirt, but he was raised on it on the farm and had a sensational work over it on Sunday. His Santa Anita Derby win was impressive, running down a world-record sprinter and going on, suggesting 1 1/4 miles shouldn't be a problem. Trainer Eoin Harty has been confidently low-key all week.

There's a tendency when you write about a horse to want to pick them, maybe because you do more research than some of the others and feel more confident and well-informed. I'm sure plenty of people will say, "Sure, pick the local guy." Yeah, Don Lucarelli owns Monba. But I think the horse has a chance to hit the board. He bounced back with a huge win in the Blue Grass that showed he was back not only physically, but mentally, which is just as important. Over the winter, trainer Todd Pletcher considered Monba his best Derby prospect, so that has to say something, doesn't it? Then again, he's 0-for-19. And even though his last race came on Polytrack, Monba does own a win at Churchill. Plus, he'll provide some value. Can't go with favorites all the time.

Pyro was the Derby favorite for a long time, until his debacle in the Blue Grass, the only time he didn't run on dirt. It was so abnormally awful, you have to think he just didn't like the Polytrack. He lost by 11 1/2 lengths -- his other three defeats came by a total of 13. Jockey Shaun Bridgmohan said this week that he never felt Pyro tried for even one step, which was unusual. Pyro broke his maiden at Churchill last summer, and I just can't believe that the Blue Grass is the start of a downward spiral. Trainer Steve Asmussen has seen all the right signs since, and if any horse has the license to rebound big-time in the Derby, it's Pyro.

I think Big Brown is a very talented horse, but post 20 is a turnoff, as are what are likely to be very short odds. Like the Breeders' Cup, there are so many talented horses in here that value can be found everywhere. You just have to find it.

Tomorrow will be a long day. At the the track probably by 8 a.m, and the Derby doens't go off until 6:04 p.m. After writing a story, sidebar and notes, I probably won't leave the box before 10. Now, if Mr. Lucarelli can win the race and save me a sidebar......