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Gibson has sizable lead over challenger from Ulster County: poll

Friday, September 21, 2012
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Julian Schreibman, left, and Rep. Chris Gibson
Julian Schreibman, left, and Rep. Chris Gibson

There wasn't a lot of good news for Democratic congressional candidate

Julian Schreibman in a new poll, which said incumbent U.S. Rep. Chris Gibson, R-Kindherook, has a healthy lead and much higher name recognition in the 19th Congressional District.

Gibson, who was elected to his first term in 2010, is currently leading Schreibman, an Ulster County assistant district attorney and former federal prosecutor, 52 percent to 36 percent among likely voters, with 11 percent of the district's vote up for grabs, according to a Siena Research Institute poll released today. The one-term representative also is viewed more positively, although neither candidate is liked by a majority of the voters in the district.

Siena pollster Steve Greenberg noted on Friday that Gibson has a 15-point net positive favorability rating and that Schreibman is uknown by nearly two-thirds of voters in the district, with those who do know him being evenly divided.

"Gibson has solidified his base, garnering the support of 83 percent of Republicans in this district with a small Republican enrollment edge, and leads by 16 [percentage] points with independents," Greenberg said in a statement.

He added, "With 46 days until Election Day, Gibson has a strong 16-point lead over Schreibman as he tries to win re-election in a district where he does not currently represent a majority of the voters."

Gibson currently represents the 20th Congressional District, which has a much larger Republican voter enrollment edge than the new district he is running in. The change in districts was the result of redistricting by a federal judge earlier this year.

The 19th Congressional District now includes parts of Schoharie, Montgomery and Rensselaer counties.

In the portion of the new district that Gibson currently represents his lead is almost two-to-one over Schreibman, with just a five percentage point lead in parts of the district that are new to him.

In the areas of Montgomery, Schoharie, Greene, Rensselaer and Columbia counties that are in the new district, Gibson has 63 percent of the vote and Schreibman has 28 percent. In this area, Gibson is viewed positively by 60 percent of the voters and Schreibman is viewed positively by 12 percent, with 70 percent lacking an opinion.

The Siena poll interviewed 635 likely voters on Sept. 17 and 18, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

 
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